IBL News | New York
AI can replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor force, amounting to $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care, and professional services.
This is the main finding of an MIT study conducted using its simulation tool, the Iceberg Index, that simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI.
Researchers found that layoffs and role shifts in tech, computing, and information technology account for just 2.2% of total wage exposure, or about $211 billion.
The Iceberg Index also challenges a common assumption about AI risk — that it will stay confined to tech roles in coastal hubs. It runs population-level experiments, revealing how AI reshapes tasks, skills, and labor flows long before those changes show up in the real economy.
“Basically, we are creating a digital twin for the U.S. labor market,” said Prasanna Balaprakash, ORNL director and co-leader of the research.